THE FINANCIAL CRISIS- A RECAP, A PREDICTION

Its only been 2 years since the US economy almost fell off a cliff, dragging linked Western economies (like the UK) with it.

But some of the public seemed to have forgotten why.
Since the UK election, there's been an understandable concentration on THE DEFICIT. But the message put out seems to suggest it came about due to profligate Government spending. Thus, cuts-deep, painful, punitive- must happen NOW.

Or Else.

Actually, the current high levels of the Deficit are due to Public Sector Money having to bailout banks in the Private Sector.

I repeat. The. Private. Sector.

Billions were spent in a number of countries, shoring up banks, which had Black Holes in their balance sheets. And why did they have them? Because they had become addicted to gambling on mortgages. They'd found a way to generate vast profits by creating a new kind of financial 'instrument', which they could buy and sell on an unregulated market. And eventually, the value of this market outstripped the mortgages....and then some.

So whereas the 'bad' mortgages (i.e mortgages taken out by people, in less than optimum circumstances, with built in interest rate hikes and punitive clauses once arrears appeared) were valued at $800 billion, the Credit Swap Derivatives etc created on the back of them...?

They are a cool $62 trillion.

Yes. Gamblers-in the banking sector- blew $62 trillion when no one was looking.

The US economy is way too big for a mere $800 billion in dodgy mortgages to crash it. Even when fighting two wars. But the banks and investment houses etc exposure to a percentage of a $62 trillion hole made one giant collapse, then the domino effect kicked in. Big financial institutions started crashing or teetering on the brink.Then the US Government-followed by others- had to leap in to prop up the entire banking system.

As the US and Britain prided themselves on having the biggest global financial centres, they had the greatest exposure. Hence giant Deficits. Not all of the Deficit is down to this....tragedy/farce. But the sudden steep rise, and the level of it, and the unmanageable nature of it is.
So.
Gambling. In the Private Sector. Creates a crisis. Requiring government action. Funded by us. For which we- the public- will have to suffer.

PREDICTION.
Northern hemisphere/Western nations will have to get used to higher levels of unemployment and under-employment, higher costs for utilities and food. Less in the way of public sector provided services. And the growing outsourcing of parts of working class skilled jobs and middle class professional jobs to eastern/southern hemisphere countries. Those countries' workforce will be exploited via poor conditions and low wages.

This has happened as- hastened by Globalisation- economic development in the emerging economic giants China, India Brazil- is shifting financial/economic activity in their direction. Why should that make things turn out in the ways predicted?Because western corporations are governed by laws requiring them to put the interests of their shareholders before everything- their workers' jobs, social justice, their own countries' economies via payments of tax and contributions to employees' pensions and healthcare - standards of living in the 'developed countries' will no longer rise. They will start to decline.

'The corporation is the predominant institution in Western society, and there is indeed a yin to its yang. Corporations provide vital jobs, ideas, products, and services. But these are all incidental and secondary to the profit-drive. If a corporation does good for goodness' sake then, by law, it runs the risk of being sued by its shareholders. As its greatest champion, Milton Friedman, told author Joel Bakan: "Its interests are the interests of its stockholders. Now, beyond that should it spend the stockholders' money for purposes which it regards as socially responsible but which it cannot connect to its bottom line? The answer I would say is no." '

That quote comes from an interesting article by Stuart Whatley. You can read it here:http://www.huffingtonpost.com/stuart-whatley/corporation-reform-financ_b_582770.html

Its on of many articles that can be found, if one looks, that ruminates on what the situation is, and what we can expect the future to bring.
The biggest emerging economies have societies that wont allow their corporations to operate in the same way.

Remember the banking crisis. Because if we don't -and fail to take the appropriate steps in changing both regulatory law and company law-it will happen again.

And given that western economies will have shrunk, and the countries with the emerging economies are better at remembering, and don't/can't let corporations operate in the ruthless and reckless way we do,if they have taken their rightful place in the various international financial institutions, they wont be helping next time round.